Pro Picks: Broncos will upset the Chiefs on Monday night
Patrick Mahomes is back. Denver's tough defense is waiting.
Mahomes is ready to start Kansas City's season opener after tearing an ACL last Dec. 14. The Chiefs are coming off their first losing season under Andy Reid and they'll need Mahomes at his best to return to power in the AFC West.
But he's facing one of the NFL’s best defenses led by 2024 AP Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain and All-Pro Zach Allen.
Bo Nix returns for the Broncos after an ankle injury forced him to miss the AFC championship game, a loss to New England.
Denver has won three in a row in the series and four of five after losing 16 straight.
The Chiefs are 2 1/2-point favorites against a team that was the AFC's No. 1 seed. Pro Picks split the first two games. We like the upset.
UPSET SPECIAL: BRONCOS: 23-20
Line: Titans minus 1 1/2
Robert Saleh’s first game as coach of the Titans is against the team that fired him in 2024. He has Cam Ward. The Jets have Geno Smith. Saleh is in a better spot now.
TITANS: 19-16
Line: Lions minus 6 1/2
Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Lions have too much offense for the Saints, who had a promising finish last season but lost a few key players in training camp.
LIONS: 30-20
Line: Jaguars minus 8 1/2
The Jaguars won 13 games last season and have most of their starters back. The Browns traded Garrett and are giving Deshaun Watson his first start since Oct. 20, 2024. This won’t be close.
JAGUARS: 27-12
Line: Bears minus 3
Both teams won their division last season though Carolina did it with a losing record. Expectations are high for Caleb Williams in his second season in Ben Johnson’s offense. Get ready for the first “Good, better, best” chant in Chicago’s locker room of the new season. Not predicting whether Johnson keeps his shirt on.
BEARS: 24-18
Line: Bengals minus 3 1/2
After starting 0-2 four times in Joe Burrow’s first five seasons, the Bengals opened 3-0 last year before things went downhill. They bolstered their defense to go with a prolific offense. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers will be a tough test for that new-look defense featuring Dexter Lawrence.
BENGALS: 26-24
Line: Steelers minus 6
Tua Tagovailoa is injuried so Cooper Rush will start for Kevin Stefanski as Atlanta tries to spoil Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy’s reunion. Bijan Robinson gives the Falcons their best chance. Rodgers goes against a depleted pass rush so he should have time to throw to DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman.
STEELERS: 24-17
Line: Bills minus 1 1/2
Joe Brady’s first game as Buffalo’s coach will be a major challenge against DeMeco Ryans and his stingy defense in Houston. C.J. Stroud plays his first game since his turnover debacle in the playoffs. Pro Picks has Josh Allen and the Bills beating the Texans in the AFC title game.
TEXANS: 19-17
Line: Ravens minus 3 1/2
Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens have high expectations in coach Jesse Minter’s first season. Daniel Jones is back for Indianapolis. So is Sauce Gardner. The Colts finished last season with seven straight losses after opening 8-2.
RAVENS: 23-20
Line: Vikings minus 1 1/2
Jordan Love and the Packers were 0-5 without Micah Parsons last season. He’s not back until October so they can’t afford to wait for a win. Kyler Murray makes his first start for the Vikings, aiming to become Kevin O’Connell’s next reclamation project.
VIKINGS: 23-20
Line: Eagles minus 5 1/2
Jalen Hurts begins his fifth straight season with a new offensive coordinator as Sean Mannion replaced Kevin Patullo. Hurts could have a big year if Mannion unlocks Saquon Barkley and the run game. The Commanders had a terrible defense last season. They added Sonny Styles and some veterans but a banged-up offensive line will struggle protecting Jayden Daniels against Philadelphia’s fierce defense.
BEST BET: EAGLES: 31-16
Line: Raiders minus 3 1/2
Two rookie coaches meet in a matchup of two teams that aren’t going to win many games. Kirk Cousins and the Raiders get the first one, though stopping Dolphins running back De’Von Achane will be a tough task for Las Vegas’ defense.
RAIDERS: 20-17
Line: Chargers minus 9 1/2
Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers have won 11 games in each of his first two seasons and brought in Mike McDaniel to run the offense led by Justin Herbert. Rookie coach Mike LaFleur is starting the season with veteran Jacoby Brissett. Los Angeles has dominated inferior teams under Harbaugh.
CHARGERS: 30-16
Line: Cowboys minus 3
The Cowboys can score behind Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. They hope new coordinator Christian Parker, rookie safety Caleb Downs and other additions improve the defense enough to make them a contender. John Harbaugh is the new man in charge in New York. Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and the rest of the Giants will be better for it. Not enough to win this week.
COWBOYS: 26-20
Overall: Straight up: 194-90-1. Against spread: 149-128-8.
Best Bet: Straight up: 15-6. Against spread: 9-11-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 14-7. Against spread: 15-6.
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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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